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April 5, 2006

The First Boot Drops

Yesterday (or today, depending on your time zone), Apple revealed the first stage of their Windows strategy with the immediate availability of "Boot Camp", a product that allows you to run Windows XP on an Intel Mac.

Given my previous predictions, I've been flooded with e-mail from friends like Keith that have titles like, "Try not to gloat too much". I'm actually not gloating right now, mostly because Boot Camp is not actually the scenario I believe Apple is ultimately working toward.

Clearly, Boot Camp is cool (hell, I'm salivating over it even though I'm eight hours away - anyone wanna buy a two-year old Vaio notebook?), but it's a trial balloon: Apple is wading into the Windows ocean, one step at a time. Boot Camp does one big thing: it lets you reboot your Intel Mac into the Windows environment. In this regard, it's no different than other dual-boot systems, like those used by Linux enthusiasts who keep XP on their hard drive to play the occasional round of World Of Warcraft (or - as I prefer to tell myself - they're creating snazzy diagrams in Visio). If you wanted to be a bit snarky, you could even say that Apple's announcement is ho-hum, because Boot Camp does nothing fundamentally different than the hack 'narf' and 'blanka' published about two weeks ago (and received about $13K for their trouble).

The difference, of course, is that this isn't a solution from two guys named 'narf' and 'blanka'. This is, instead, from Apple, which changes things substantially.

Because it's from Apple, it's much easier to implement than the 'narf' hack: Apple provides some very nice drive-partitioning software for Mac OS X (no reinstall/reformat needed), an equally nice boot-time OS chooser (If you want Windows, hold down the Option key while starting up), and a handy, burn-your-own-CD routine that lets you get Windows up and running on your Mac hardware.

And, because it's from Apple, it's a clear strategic shift that, yes, confirms some of my earlier thinking about how Apple plans to grow. Apple is rebooting their "Switch" Campaign for 2007.

First of all, is Apple in the Windows business? No. Or at least, not yet:

"Apple has no desire or plan to sell or support Windows, but many customers have expressed their interest to run Windows on Apple's superior hardware now that we use Intel processors," Philip Schiller, senior vice president of worldwide product marketing, said in a statement. (Source: Seattle Times)

This is actually quite a change from what Apple used to say about running Windows on the Mac, back when the Intel Macs were first announced:

After Jobs' presentation, Apple Senior Vice President Phil Schiller addressed the issue of running Windows on Macs, saying there are no plans to sell or support Windows on an Intel-based Mac. "That doesn't preclude someone from running it on a Mac. They probably will," he said. "We won't do anything to preclude that." (Source: News.com)

Now that is quite a distance in just two months. Let me get this straight: in January, Apple adopts the Sergeant Schultz defense to users who want to put Windows on their Macs ("I know noz-zhing! Noz-zhing!!!"), and today, less than 90 days later, they're putting polished software into the market that lets you do just that?

Give me a break. This has been in the pipe for a while.

Where is this going? Well, Apple candidly admits that Boot Camp is a prelude of Things To Come:

"To make this choice simply irresistible, Apple will include technology in the next major release of Mac OS X, Leopard, that lets you install and run the Windows XP operating system on your Mac. Called Boot Camp (for now), you can download a public beta today."

Of course, the final form of "letting you install and run the Windows XP operating system on your Mac" is yet to be announced. My bet is that the reboot-to-use-Windows strategy is just a temporary solution, one that gives guys like Keith and Will the ability to buy a new iMac and still play their PC games. But rebooting sucks, and so it's not a good solution for the mass market. Virtualization is what's needed, but Leopard - and its inevitable support for virtualization - isn't out yet. So for today, you reboot. Tomorrow, it'll be, well, more Apple-like.

Boot Camp is basically nine months of free marketing for Apple. Between now and January (when Leopard finally comes out) the public is going to hear nothing except "Macs can run Windows!" from the popular press, the blogosphere, and their geek friends. And guess what? By the time Christmas rolls around, a lot of those people who are in the market for a new PC are (finally) going to consider an Apple computer instead of one from HP, Dell, Toshiba or Sony.

And this is the big point to remember, folks: it's all about Toshiba and Sony. This is most emphatically not about Apple vs. Microsoft - instead, this is about Apple taking a nice, big slice of the high-end Windows PC market to double their share. If I'm Sony, and I sell high-end Vaio laptops, Boot Camp is Steve Jobs' way of telling me that my customers are now in play. (Frankly, skywriting it would have been more subtle.) After all, Apple makes the tastiest hardware in the computer business and it's priced competitively with other quality PC brands. So if I'm a consumer, and I see a Sony laptop for $2000 that runs Windows alongside an Apple laptop for $2000 that runs Windows and Mac OS X, well, which is the better value? The Mac is. No question. It's the no-compromise choice. In one fell swoop, Apple has just captured all of the value of its rival PC makers, while continuing to provide the same great stuff (iLife, OS X) that comes with their own machines.

If I were Sony, or Toshiba, or HP, I'd be freaking out right now.

UPDATE, May 13, 2006: One or more of the original hyperlinks on this page expired, and has been dereferenced. The hyperlinked text is now underlined.

Posted by Gavin Shearer at April 5, 2006 9:57 PM. Posted to Apple.

Comments

Skywriting is considered subtle here in Seattle, where it's a white-on-grey format.

Schiller's January remarks should be read more narrowly. He said nothing then that's any different today. First, Boot Camp's an unsupported and bring-your-own Windows XP deal, as explictly stated : "... though you will need to bring your own copy to the table, as Apple Computer does not sell or support Microsoft Windows." And the second part of his comment, "someone ... probably will"; he didn't say it wouldn't be Apple.
Otherwise, good post and good call. But I wonder if your prediction about Apple licensing Windows is correct. In the first place, you are correct in thinking that Steve Jobs would spot Microsoft a few extra billion if there was no other way to impliment his grand switching design. Remember, Schiller said "Apple has no desire *or plan to sell* or support Windows" Secondly, there's still the Red Box to be considered. When IBM attempted to have Windows functionality without Windows on OS/2, Microsoft was still the nominative underdog to Big Blue, so antitrust was not a big concern for MS at the time. That is certainly not the case today. If Microsoft uses the same tactics of rewriting code to keep a Red Box solution in OS X from working, the DoJ would have to take notice. My thought is that if the Red Box solution is implimented, it would be more likely taken at 10.6. It would be a full-fledged declaration of war, and I think Apple needs to have a working Office replacement in place before that big step is taken. IWork isn't a threat yet, but maybe in the next year that could be -one more thing.
Or I could be completely fos.

Posted by: Mister Nick at April 7, 2006 1:26 PM

re: Apple vs. Sony

Funny that you should mention that; just yesterday I was at the local shopping mall and saw a brand new "Sony Style" store across the hall from the Apple Store. I got to toy around with the new carbon fiber Vaios, and my impression is that they're hugely superior to Powerbooks -- er, MacBook Pros. They must weigh a third of what the MacBooks do, and the frame is much stronger (every MacBook owner I know has inevitably dented or bent his chassis at some point).

of course, I'd rather return to hunting-gathering for dinner than switch back to Windows, but I'd hardly call the MacBook Pros the "tastiest" portables anymore. Aluminum has to go.

Posted by: Eric J at April 7, 2006 2:44 PM

What really struck me about the two Schiller quotes was how similar they were. In the earlier one, he says "no plans to sell or support Windows," and in the later one he says "no desire or plan to sell or support Windows." They're essentially the same words. The first time around, everybody took "support" to mean "enable." But if you assume he's a marketing weasel (and he is), one interpretation of what he meant BOTH times is: "We're not so stupid as to commit resources to provide assistance to people running Windows." So this may not be as much of a reversal as some in the press have been crowing.

Posted by: kokorozashi at April 7, 2006 3:11 PM

Ya I thought that the Schiller quotes where pretty much the same as well. I do not see this as a shot across Microsofts bow however. Why would Microsoft pull Mac Office when Apples market-share is growing, wouldn't this just sell more copies of Mac Office. OSX is not a threat to Windows, it's more of a muse.
This new virtualization layer will be something different than classic. Classic was a measure taken for compatibility, so that their user base could transition. "Go ahead give OSX a shot... see classic is there if you need him... it's safe." I guess for windows users it will still be like this, but for Apples installed base this is an all out feature... a killer feature. " Look what Leopard can do!" It's more than a band-aid to get us past the hard times, it offers new possibilities. It will almost certainly speed the move to intel, sell a lot of copies of OS X, and help the market-share situation. Gee's! DUH how could Apple not be doing this...? So ya Mr. Gavin your my new favorite blogger :)

Posted by: Chris Waterman at April 7, 2006 9:53 PM

"Creating snazzy diagrams in Visio" ? I know you're biased, but Mac-only OmniGraffle wipes the floor with Visio's sorry arse and is 1/4th the price, to boot.

No, I don't work for them; just a fanatical customer.

Posted by: matt at April 7, 2006 10:41 PM

Check out another scenario at my blog too.
http://codenexus.wordpress.com/
These Apple people are either insanely smart or just thought of one move that actually targets a whole lot of other areas.

Posted by: codenexus at April 8, 2006 4:05 AM

Just a quick correction: the Intel-core Macs were announced in June last year, not January of this year. (check your News. com link above). Thus, not three months, but 10 months. My how time flies!

Posted by: Leflyman at April 8, 2006 7:16 AM

Thank you for calling attention to the real issue with Sony/Toshiba/HP. Microsoft is sitting fairly pretty at the moment because now there is another hardware maker that can run their OS.

Since Apple is still not selling Windows or providing technical support for it, Phil Schiller's statements could still be taken as consistent.

Posted by: Mark Eagleton at April 8, 2006 8:30 AM

I posted about how Apple would gain hardware market penetration by doing this, way back in March when the machines were first announced.

http://www.notebookforums.com/showthread.php?p=1820101#post1820101

Posted by: Crash at April 8, 2006 11:37 PM

Hey Gavin, great article, I liked it so much I have linked to it from my lense:

http://www.squidoo.com/Boot-Camp/

Hope you don't mind!

Posted by: kman at April 9, 2006 1:08 PM

Boot Camp actually removes the power of the threat of MS dropping Office, as Mac users could switch to the Windows version - especially if it was in a "Classic-like" or Virtual box. Mac users wouldn't like it, but they'd blame MS for dropping it, not Apple. And I do expect, all the more now, a full fledged iWork for $99 or less by MWSF.

And kudos for predicting this step all the way back in January.

Posted by: mark at April 10, 2006 10:42 PM

Just a note on Carbon Fibre laptops (as mentioned above) - I hope they've improved the stability of it over the years as the carbon fibre on my Ducati has not aged well at all ... I'd be annoyed if my laptop had the same look in twelve months as my bike did.

Posted by: Dan Murphy at April 11, 2006 5:09 PM

Curb your enthusiasm. A $2,000 Mac that runs both OS X and Windows will cost $2,000 PLUS the cost of a shrink-wrapped copy of Windows XP. People who are portraying Boot Camp as enabling you to buy a Mac and sonehow get Windows for free are misleading their readers. So, in purely economic terms the Mac will not be "the better value" because no one is ever going to give you a copy of Windows for free--even if Apple started bundling it and selling it themselves.

Posted by: Jim B at April 11, 2006 10:00 PM

The smallest Vaio I can find is $3000 and almost exactly half the weight of the MacBook Pro -- it's a 1.3 GHz subnotebook, not really a direct competitor to the MacBook Pro. The others are all as heavy or heavier.

I hope Apple produces an ultralight, but it's a different product category.

Posted by: Tonio Loewald at April 12, 2006 4:00 PM

Don't delink. Wayback.

Posted by: Calion Author Profile Page at June 24, 2006 11:06 PM

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