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« Slate.com On Keeping Your New Year's Resolution | Main | NetFlix To Make A Set-Top Box » January 2, 2008Macworld 2008 PredictionsMacworld is less than two weeks away, so it's time for the annual magic-8-ball-shaking routine. This year's show feels a touch more stable than last year's, if only because the rumor mill isn't being stoked as hotly by crazy-ass theories that Apple was going to get in to the phone business (I mean, really - can you imagine?). This cycle, it seems like people have a few pet theories about what Apple is going to launch - I hear "a Mac Tablet" a lot - but there's not the same crazy, "oh-God-what-is-it?!" kind of fervor. Frankly, I think 2008 is all about Apple building on their franchises, and I expect their product announcements to reflect that. Specifically, I think the big news will be a new, super-thin laptop, the iPhone software upgrades, and a substantial rev to AppleTV. (As with most of my Apple posts, the usual disclaimer applies to this one - I may work for MacBU, but I don't know anything special. I'm just throwing darts at a board like everyone else.) Since the name of the show is "Macworld" (as opposed to say, iPhoneworld, or AppleTVworld), it makes sense to start with... Macintosh Both the iMac and MacBook product lines are really strong at the moment (and both have been completely refreshed recently), so I don't expect any notable changes to either. Friends of mine who follow the Mac Pro market (I don't, generally) tell me that the thing is getting a bit long in the tooth, and is ready for some processor and motherboard upgrades to whatever latest-and-greatest Intel iron is available. (And, anecdotally, my coworker Kurt swears that Apple will refresh the Mac Pro because "he just bought one." I trust Kurt on this.) The MacBook Pro, however, is going to be the big change. When it was first introduced, the MBP wasn't much more than an Intel processor in a G4 PowerBook case. In fact, the current design of the MacBook Pro line was introduced at Macworld 2003 - five years ago - which is an eternity in the world of Apple design. I'm betting that the MacBook Pro line is about to get a stylistic refresh, becoming thinner and lighter across the board. And I'm also betting that the rumors are true, and the current 15" and 17" models will be joined by a holy-crap-that's-small 12" or 13" model. Might be flash-based, might not be; might have an optical drive, might not. Whatever. It's going to be small, light, gorgeous, slip-it-in-a-bag-and-never-notice-it cute. It's worth pointing out that Apple has never replaced the gap in its product line caused by the demise of the 12" PowerBook. The 12" seems to still be in fairly wide use today. I know lots of people who love their 12" PowerBooks, despite the fact that they're woefully underpowered. This unit longevity and loyalty speaks to a decent market for small machines, and, given Apple's relentless focus on design and miniaturization, it makes sense that they'd do a fantastically tiny Mac laptop to serve it. iPod/iPhone I don't expect new hardware in either the iPod or iPhone area - the iPods just got refreshed with the introduction of the "fat" Nano and the Touch, and iPhone v2 - one with 3G, and more memory - feels more like a late-Spring delivery, timed to coincide with the product's rollout in Asia. That means iPhone announcements will be all about the software. We know that the 1.1.3 update to the iPhone is imminent - GearLive, among others, has some great video footage of new enhancements to the product. I'd wager that we'll get a walk-through of some of these new features, as well as availability of 1.1.3 by the end of the show. The big news, however, will be the iPhone SDK. I've already talked about what I expect from the SDK, so I anticipate that Steve will spend a lot of time talking about their partner value proposition is - especially for small developers. I also expect one or two handpicked folks - people with early access to the SDK - will be on stage to talk about their experiences with the kit, and to pump their products. (Think Theo Gray doing his Universal Binary talk at the Intel announcement, and you've got the right idea.) And I fully expect that at least one of these folks will be someone like EA or PopCap. See, the iPhone needs games. I miss games on my iPhone. I started goofing with my iPod a bit over the holiday and fell in love with Zuma all over again. My brother-in-law is addicted to Vortex on his Nano. Casual games are such a natural, wonderful fit for Apple's consumer market that their absence from Apple's high-end portables is quite jarring. I think this is mostly a timing problem - the SDK just isn't out yet - but if Steve talks about any apps at all for the iPhone, I'm betting he'll talk about games. AppleTV Launched last year, AppleTV has been a modest success, lauded by many of its users for being an elegant, simple, and ridiculously-easy way to watch iTunes content on your television. Apple needed the AppleTV to support the launch of its movie download business, and the product delivered. Problem is, despite its excellent execution, the consumer promise of AppleTV is a bit too thin at the moment. There's no "second act", no "one more thing..." to drive sales beyond the market of people who a) have content in iTunes, and b) want to watch that content on their television. Unlike, say, the Xbox 360, AppleTV doesn't play games; unlike, say, a PlayStation 3, the AppleTV doesn't play DVD or Blu-Ray discs. As such, people who might want the capabilities that AppleTV offers are stuck looking at the prospect of putting One. More. Freakin'. Box. into their home-theater system - they can't pull one out because they're replacing functionality (as they did to their VCR when they bought a TiVo), or make the case that it will get a lot of use from other members of the household (as you can when you watch DVDs on your game machine). AppleTV, today, is an "additive" thing to the media console. And many people feel like their media consoles are stuffed to the gills already, thankyouverymuch. AppleTV's problem is, basically, that its use-case is too specific: the product needs to offer more options for content playback. Therefore, I predict that AppleTV v2 will come with DVD - and that there will be a higher-end AppleTV that does Blu-Ray or HD-DVD (although my money is on Blu-Ray). This will be the first step in a series of moves to evolve the AppleTV from "one more box" to the nerve center of the living room - the true "digital hub." The living room is a natural next step for Apple (and not just to protect the iPod/iTunes business). Technologically speaking, the living room is a nightmare for most people - three or more different remote controls, each driving a television, receiver, DVD player, TiVo, and so on. Getting the system set up at all is a Mensa test; making it work for everyone in the family requires a ton of training and a real comfort with technology. (And if you think I'm overstating the problem, invite a nontechie fortysomething relative over to your high-tech home for the holidays and ask them to "turn on the TV." Point at your basket of remote controls next to the coffee table, and start the timer on your watch. They'll be asking for help in less than 2 minutes.) It's just this type of problem space - confusing interfaces, lots of interoperability challenges, impenetrability to the non-propellerhead consumer - that Apple has a special penchant for solving. The living room isn't just an opportunity for Apple to sell a few more copies of "Pirates of the Caribbean 3" through iTunes; it's an opportunity to knock Sony down in the dirt, and make a lot of money doing it. Don't forget: Apple's new business model is to launch new consumer-electronics (read: hardware) businesses that intelligently leverage the Mac. That's AppleTV. So AppleTV v2 will be a bit cheaper (maybe $199 or $249), and come with DVD/Blu-Ray. That makes it an easier sell for a lot of people, especially people who are thinking about getting a Blu-Ray player anyway. But what about software? Well, again, we're hearing rumors that Apple has cut deals with studios to offer on-demand rentals of movies through iTunes. If true (and I think it is), this will be a huge advantage for AppleTV, because it will turns the box in to an on-demand movie (and, eventually, television) service. For people who don't like the selection of their cable company (or who don't have cable), this will be a real boon. In effect, this is the first step toward Apple building a private, iTunes-and-Internet-based TV network. AppleTV is the set-top box, content comes direct from the studios, and Comcast/DirecTV/Blockbuster/Unbox/Netflix can suck it. (And - long shot here- if Apple is really savvy, they'll encourage users to get their video content into iTunes by incorporating a DVD ripper/encoder into iTunes 8. This is, in effect, the same strategy they used with the iPod, letting people "rip, mix, burn" their already-owned CDs into the iTunes jukebox. Nothing really does that today, other than Handbrake, and Handbrake is Propellerhead Central. Apple might be able to get the studios to go along with it, too, as long as the newly-ripped files were encrypted with FairPlay, to prevent distribution. But this really feels like an AppleTV v3 thing to me.) If they make a really compelling AppleTV v2, then the next step is to move it up the chain in v3 and beyond. Make no mistake - Apple wants their media technology to be as necessary to your home theater as a HDTV and good speakers. It'll take 'em a while to get there, but I expect we'll see a big step toward it on January the 15th. So that's what my magic-eight-ball says. What about yours? Posted by Gavin Shearer at January 2, 2008 9:52 PM. Posted to Apple. Trackback PingsTrackBack URL for this entry: CommentsExcluding blue-ray, these all seem like good guesses. However I have been waiting a long time for a new 12" powerbook :(
That little thing was the BEST laptop I have ever used, period. It was small enough to take everywhere and rock solid. It never crashed and I could open/close/wake/sleep the thing non-stop without worry. (Contrast that with my current Dell/XP machine which I am afraid to undock or move without a complete reboot.) I upgrade to a Macbook Pro 15" which is Intel-based and has a much better screen but it really is not as convenient as a laptop because of its larger size. I have been waiting years now for Apple to bring out a 12" pro.... Here's to hoping. Maybe this will be the year. As for the AppleTV... The living room home theater situation is a mess. Too many similar but different competitors offering similar but different (and most incompatable) products to a market that is not technical enough to even hook the things up right, (if surveys are to be believed). And even after you get it hooked up, you correctly point out that it is impossible to operate. An Apple TV + Blueray player is infinately more interesting but to be honest I would much rather have an iTunes movie player on my PS3. The PS3 already has an excellent DVD/BlueRay player, good (and free) wireless networking, HDMI connectors for 1080p content AND it plays games. The PS3 is also stand-alone - you dont need a Mac to store your content; you can put a bigass HDD right in the PS3. aTV could be interesting (much like the LG/Netflix device) if it was dirt cheap. But no one is going to sell blue-ray players cheaper than Sony so if they want cheap, it will be limited to DVD. Which might be fine for Apple since they dont own content or standards like HD-DVD or BlueRay. Putting cable companies to death is a pesonal interest of mine but I question how much content owners want to continue to strengthen Apple's hand. Killing an industry is a messy business. Cable is in much the same position as cell carriers but moving to an on-demand world is likely to be a bumpy road. It will be interesting to see what Apple does but it probably wont be a big hit outside of the Apple-faithful. Living room media is a mess and it will probably stay that way for a while yet. But this transition is about more than products, it is also about content and business models, which makes it very interesting to watch. The question is whether any one solution can build a critical mass to attack the status quo. Posted by: purple I didnt comment about the Tablet idea because I think that is a (long-standing) pipe dream. There are clearly people who love tablets because it connects with their visual learning style but anyone who has used a Windows Tablet knows that it is not easy to convert the mouse/keyboard system to a tablet one. That work could be done but it is not justified unless there is a large enough market to support it, which there doesnt seem to be. Tablets are the realm of industrial applications like UPS drivers. Having said that, it would be very interesting to see Apple apply their Touch technology to a desktop. Imagine an iPhone with a 12" screen... Now picture this amazing iPhone SDK you are predicting, with support for touch and inertial sensors. With that SDK running on the desktop compiling apps for the iPhone/iPod. Well, is it such a stretch to imagine using that SDK to write regular desktop apps? If Apple has already done the heavy lifting to support a touch interface, suddenly a Mac Tablet does not seem so far fetched. Apple doesn't need more buzz but a device like this would certainly generate some even if it isnt a big seller. Posted by: purple Post a commentThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out) (If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)« Slate.com On Keeping Your New Year's Resolution | Main | NetFlix To Make A Set-Top Box » |
